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Holdem Poker Basics |
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Typically when you are calculating the
real or effective odds, future bets
work against you. But there actually
improves your odds, this is where the
concept of implied odds comes in.
Implied odds take into account the
potential for quite high payoffs from
making monster hands that are well
concealed. As example, holding small or middle pair and making trips on the flop is usually hard to read until you begin giving
away hints with your bets and difficult to get paid much once you make your draw
because of the obviousness of your hand.
Therefore, when player's are calculating their real or effective odds they should
consider the likelihood that the other player will sense that his hand is beat. If there is a
high likelihood that the other player will not sense the strength of your hand quickly,
then you can adjust the real odds by taking into account the implied odds of being able
to win extra bets in future rounds.
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Again, following the example of small and middle pairs. You will see an overpair on the
flop most of the time, and against strong re-raising preflop you will probably need to
make a set to win the pot. The odds of making trips on the flop are about 8 to 1. It is
highly unlikely that you will ever be given the effective odds of 8 to 1 pre-flop. In fact,
only by calculating effective odds you would never play weak pairs or suited connectors.
But the implied odds of holding a small pair especially when you know your opponent
has a premium starting hand is quite high. Even though you would still end up folding
most of the time on the flop, the 1 in 9 times you make your set you are likely to get paid
off much more than 8 to 1 against most players. (Making sets against premium overpairs
is a big part of my long term profit as a player).
Calculating implied odds is not an exact science and there is no mathematical formula to
working it out. But with experience you gain a sense of when your getting strong implied
odds. Factors you must consider are; the amount of money both you and the other
player have, the quality of your opponent, your own ability to play this opponent and the
strength of your opponents cards at the time.
than the amount of money that either yourself or the other play has. So if you are
looking for a set, both you and your opponent must have at least 8 to 1 to the current
bet otherwise there is no way the implied odds are enough to cover the real odds
(include the current pot as well).
Your implied odds will generally be higher with weaker players who cannot lay down
premium starting hands. You must also consider the history between yourself and this
player and whether this will affect how much you can be paid off, e.g. did you just show
a massive bluff making this player overly aggressive against you? or did you just milk
this guy for half his stack and now he's playing lock down poker? Overall, you need to
assess your ability to maximise the payoff once you make your hand.
Finally, the implied odds are higher when your opponent begins with a strong hand.
While you may make a monster hand, unless your opponent has something you won't
be getting much money from him.
Implied Odds Famous Example - Stu Ungar vs Doyle Brunson
Gut shot for the 1980 W.S.O.P
It is the final table of the 1980 No Limit Hold'em W.S.O.P Championship at the
Horseshoe Casino, Las Vegas. It is has come down to heads up between Stu Ungar
and Doyle Brunson. Stu Ungar holding $497,500 and Doyle Brunson with $232,500.
Doyle Brunson is dealt a Ah7s and Stu Ungar 4s5s. Preflop action builds a pot of
$30,000. The flop comes Ad, 2d, 7c. Doyle flops top two pair, aces up. Stu Ungar has
five high and a gut shot straight draw.
Stu Ungar checks, Doyle Brunson wanting to get paid and protect his hand makes a
$17,000 bet. Stu Ungar was getting odds around 2.7 to 1 to make his gut shot on the
turn. The effective odds only get worse if you consider calling to the river with another
big bet on the turn. The odds of making the gut shot on the turn was over 10.75 to 1. By
most calculations, Stu Ungar should have folded because he wasn't getting the right
odds. But.... in his own words Stu Ungar explained
"I wouldn't have called too much more than that for a gut shot. But if Doyle has a hand,
its worth $17,000 because if I do catch a 3, I'm going to bust him."
This is strictly implied odds thinking and is a great example of how to approach implied
odds. Stu Ungar wasn't thinking about just the immediate $47,000 pot, he was thinking
about Doyle's entire $232,500 stack. Stu's $15,000 call preflop and Doyle's stack gave
him implied odds of 14.5 to 1. It was the right call whether he made his hand or not.
As fate would have it, the turn brought a 3 of hearts, giving Stu his straight ace to five.
Stu bet $40,000 into Doyle. After some reflection, Doyle moved all-in. Holding the nuts,
Stu Ungar calls straight away. The river brought a 2 of diamonds, giving Stu Ungar the
1980 w.s.o.p bracelet.
(Note: This was tournament final table, heads up play. This situation will always involve
faster and more aggressive play than 'normal' poker.)
Hope this was useful. Good Luck!!! Any further questions? No problem, just email
webmaster at gamblershandbook.net
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